FOCRAII 2013 Program

Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)
(Final Program)
8-10 April 2013, Beijing China

April 8 (Monday), 2013

Location:1st Floor, CMA Conference Center
Opening Ceremony (09:00-09:30)
Chair: SONG Lianchun
09:00-09:10   Welcome address by JIAO Meiyan, Deputy Administrator of CMA
09:10-09:20   Address by Leslie Malone, Representative of WMO
09:20-09:25   Address by WANG Ying, Representative of SAFEA
09:25-10:00   Group Photo and Tea Break
Session 1: User Interface Program — Opportunity, Challenge and Implementation (10:00-11:50)
Chair: JIANG Tong
10:00-10:10   Introduction to ecosystem management partnership
10:10-10:20   Communicating climate change information to the public and business
Patrick Shroeder, CANGO
10:20-10:30   Climate over Tibetan Plateau and Requirements of Social Economic Services
XIAO Cunde, CAMS/CMA, China
10:30-10:40   Japan’s pilot project on user interface platform for agriculture
Shotaro TANAKA, JMA, Japan
10:40-10:50   Application of Climate Information in Disaster Reduction and Relief
ZHAO Fei, NDRC, China
10:50-11:00   Application of Climate Information in Weather Index Based Insurance
SU Buda, BCC/CMA, China
11:00-11:10   Application of Climate Information in Urban Planning
ZOU Tao, THUPDI, China
11:10-11:50   Discussion 
Lunch (12:00-13:30)
Session 2: Invited Lectures (13:30-17:50)
13:30-14:00   Long-term variation of heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and its impact on the Asian summer monsoon
DING Yihui, BCC/CMA, China
14:00-14:30   Dynamics of El Niño Diversity
Feifei JIN, Hawaii University, USA
14:30-15:00   Dominant Modes of the Tibetan Plateau Tropospheric Temperature and Their Links to Surface Climate
15:00-15:30   Measures of Estimating Uncertainty of Seasonal Climate Prediction: Information-based vs signal-to-noise based metrics
Youmin TANG, UNBC, Canada
15:30-16:00   Tea Break
16:00-16:30   Multi-Perturbation Methods for Ensemble Prediction of the MJO
In-Sik KANG, SNU, Republic of Korea
16:30-17:00   Changes in global and regional monsoon precipitation projected by CMIP5 models
17:00-17:30   Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Datasets
Phil JONES, University of East Anglia, UK
Reception by BCC (18:30-20:00, at the 3rd floor of Hubei Hotel) 

April 9 (Tuesday), 2013

Location:1st Floor, CMA Conference Center
Session 3: Impact and Physical Mechanism of Key External Factors for Climate Anomalies (09:00-12:00)
Chair: CHEN Lijuan
09:00-09:15   Recent SST, sea ice, and snow cover monitoring and diagnosis
YUAN Yuan, BCC/CMA, China
09:15-09:30   Primary Factors of Cold Winter 2012/2013 in East Asia
Shotaro TANAKA, JMA, Japan
09:30-09:45   Dominant modes of the East Asian summer monsoon using equivalent potential temperature
Jun-Hyeok Son, PNU, Republic of Korea
09:45-10:00   On the Relationship between East Asia Jet and North Pacific Circulation Pattern
Jae-Heung Park, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea
10:00-10:15   A method of analogue-based correction of errors in model predictions and its application to 2013 summer climate prediction
REN Hongli, BCC/CMA, China
10:15-10:40 Break
Oral Presentation
Chair: ZHOU Bing
10:40-10:55   The Features of East Asian Winter Monsoon in 2012/13 and Its Possible Impact
WANG Dongqian, BCC/CMA, China
10:55-11:10   Inter-annual Variation of Southwest Monsoon and ENSO in Thailand
Kornrawee Sitthichivapak, TMD, Thailand
11:10-11:25   Outlook of ENSO from spring to summer 2013
HAN Rongqing, BCC/CMA, China
11:25-11:40   Planning and Management of Water Resources in a Climate Change Perspective
Muhammad Ajmal Shad, PMD, Pakistan
Lunch (12:00-13:30)
Session 4:Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change (13:30-15: 00)  Location:1st Floor, CMA Conference Center
Chair: Valentina KHAN
13:30-13:45   Climate Events and Impacts over China in 2012
HUANG Dapeng, BCC/CMA, China
13:45-14:00   Overview of 2012/2013 Winter over Korea
Ehyung Park, KMA, Republic of Korea
14:00-14:15   National Hydro meteorological Service of Republic of Tajikistan sight from within
Manucher Baidulloev, Tajikistan
14:15-14:30   Rainfall and Temperature Trend in Climate Chang Scenario
Naeem Shah, PMD, Pakistan
14:30-14:45   Current Status of Climate monitoring and Long - range Weather Forecast in Lao PDR
14:45-15:20  Tea Break
Session 5:Seasonal Climate Prediction of the Summer 2013 over East Asia Area (15:20-17: 30)
Chair: Shotaro TANAKA
15:20-15:30   The seasonal forecast of the precipitation in China
PENG Jingbei, IAP/CAS, China
15:30-15:40   Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013
KE Zongjian, BCC/CMA, China
15: 40-15:50   Seasonal Outlook for 2013 Summer over Korea
Jeongsun KIM , KMA, Republic of Korea
15: 50-16:00   Seasonal Outlook for Summer 2013 over Japan
Tadayuki OKUBO, JMA, Japan
16:00-16:10   Seasonal Climate Outlook for summer 2013
Hyun-Ju Lee, APCC, Republic of Korea
16:10-16:20   Seasonal Forecast for Summer 2013 for Hong Kong
Hangwai Tong, Hong Kong Observatory, China   
16:20-16:40      Tea Break
Chair: KIM Jeongsun
16:40-16:5   Seasonal Forecast for 2013 Rainy Season for Macau
Lok Chan Wa, SMG, Macao, China
16:50-17:00   Long-range forecasting within the activity of North Eurasian Climate Center
Valentina KHAN, ROSHYDROMET, Russia
17: 00-17:10   Outlook of Summer Climate over DPR of Korea in 2013
Kim Cholmin, SHMA, DPR of Korea
17: 10-17:20   Climate Review of Winter 2012-2013 and Seasonal Outlook for Summer 2013 over Mongolia
Oyunjargal LAMJAV, Mongolia
17: 20-17:30   Seasonal Forecasting and drought monitoring for spring 2013
Mohammednoor Abdulqader B Ahmedjey, PME, Saudi Arabia
Dinner (18:00-20:00)

April 10 (Wednesday), 2013

Session 6: (09:00-12 :00)Location:1st Floor, CMA Conference Center
Chair: Song YANG
09:00-09:30   ECMWF long range forecast systems
09:30-10:00   US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
10:00-10:30   Met Office’s high-resolution seasonal forecasting system
Anca BROOKSHAW, Met Office, UK
10:30-11:00   Tea Break
Chair: ZHANG Peiqun
11:00-11:15    Introduction to JMA’s one-month model – focusing on an extreme rainfall event during Asian monsoon season –
Hiroaki MINEMATSU, JMA, Japan
11:15-11:30   Recent Development of APCC
Hyun-Ju Lee, APCC, Republic of Korea
11:30-11:45   Introduction to Development of FODAS
GONG Zhiqiang, BCC/CMA, China
11:45-12:00   Overview of the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Anca BROOKSHAW, Met Office, UK
Lunch (12:00-13:30)
Session 7: Discussion and Summary (13:30-14:30)
Location:1st Floor, CMA Conference Center
Chair: Feifei JIN
A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2013 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, ECMWF, JMA, APCC and other NMHSs from Asia.
Closing Remarks (14:30-14:50)
Chair: ZHANG Peiqun