Third Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)

(Provisional Program)


April 4 (Wednesday), 2007


LocationLobby of Beijing Climate Center

Opening Ceremony (09:00-10:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Chair:             Chen Deliang

09:00-09:10        Welcome address by Administrator of CMA

09:10-09:20       Address by WMO representative (Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, Chief, World Climate Applications & CLIPS Division, WMO)

09:20-09:30        Address by Deputy Director-General of BCC (Dr. Li Weijing)

09:30-10:00        Group Photo and Tea Break

Invited Lectures (10:00-12:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Chair:            Li Weijing

10:00-10:40       Mainstreaming climate services within the decision-making framework: Asian context

R. Kolli, Chief, WCA & CLIPS Division, WMO

10:40-11:20       Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon

                        Ding Yihui, Academician of CAS, CMA

11:20-12:00    Developments in Seasonal-to-Decadal forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre

Christopher Gordon, Hadley Center

Lunch (12:00-13:30)

Session 1Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2007 (13:30-18:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Invited Lectures (13:30-15:30)

Chair:      Song Yang

13:30-14:10    NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Simulations and Prediction of the Asian-Australian and Indo-Pacific Climate

Song Yang, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

14:10-14:50    Climate Monitoring and Prediction at the IRI

Liqiang SUN, IRI, USA

14:50-15:30   Scientific Developments in Seasonal Climate Prediction

Saji N. Hameed, APCC, Korea

15:30-15:50    Tea Break


Oral Presentations (15:50-17:50) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change

Chair: Patricio López Carmona

15:50-16:10        Climate Change in India

Pulak Guhathakurta, IMD

16:10-16:30    Climate Variability

Begum Jinnatun Nessa, Bangladesh Meteorological Department

16:30-16:50    Overview of Recent Climate over Korea

Kyung Suk Cho, CPD/KMA

16:50-17:10       Recent Summer Climate Change in Northern Part of Korea and Its Possible Mechanism

Choe Pong Chol, SHMA

17:10-17:30       Variations in severe storm over China

Xukai Zou, BCC/CMA

17:30-17:50       Projection of mean climate over South Asia by two RCMs

Jagadishwor Karmacharya, DHM, Nepal

17:50-18:00        Conceptual proposal for development of a regional project on “enabling people for adaptation to the climate change and natural disaster through the network of scientists-teachers-students”

              Dhiraj Pradhananga, BCC visiting scholar, DHM, Nepal

Reception by BCC (18:00-20:00)


April 5 (Thursday), 2007

Invited Lectures (08:30-11:30) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Chair:      R. Kolli  

08:30-09:10       CIIFEN’s Climate Information Services in Western South America

Patricio López Carmona, Director of CIIFEN, Ecuador

09:10-09:50       ICPAC Experience in Regional Climate Monitoring and Seasonal Prediction in the Greater Horn of Africa

OGALLO LABAN, Director of ICPAC, Kenya

09:50-10:30       Regional difference of the long-term variability in tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific

                           Chang-Hoi Ho, Seoul National University, Korea

10:30-10:50       Tea Break


Session 1 (cont.) Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2007 (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Invited Lecture (10:50-11:30)

Chair:             Zhang Zuqiang

10:50-11:30    The JMA Ensemble One-month Prediction System



Oral Presentations (11:30-12:50)

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling

11:30-11:50        Adaptation of Global and Regional Spectra Models for Seasonal Forecasting in Hong Kong

Mok Hing Yim, HKO

11:50-12:10       KMA Long-Range Forecast Systems and Verification of rainfall/temperature predictions in 2006

Lee Youngho, CPD/KMA

12:10-12:30       Effects of Multi-Cumulus Convective Ensemble for East Asian Monsoon Rainfall

Doo Young Lee, APCC, Korea

12:30-12:50       Seasonal simulation of temperature and precipitation over Kazakhstan with the RegCM3

Yevgeniya Petrova, Applied Meteorological Department, Kazkhstan


Lunch (12:50-13:50)


Oral Presentations (13:50-18:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2007 over East Asia Area

Chair:                 Zhang Peiqun, BCC/CMA

13:50-14:10        Seasonal Outlook of the 2007 Summer

Won-Tae Yun, CPD/KMA

14:10-14:30        Climate Prediction in Summer Season of 2007 in DPRK

Kim Chol Min, SHMA

14:30-14:50       The JMA Seasonal Forecast for 2007 Summer


14:50-15:10       The Outlook of East Asia Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in Flood Season of 2007 in China

Gao Hui, BCC/CMA

15:10-15:30        Forecast for 2007 Rainy Season

Lao Ieng Wai, Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

15:30-15:50       Seasonal Outlook on 2007 East Asian Summer Monsoon by DCMPS/BCC

Liu Luliu, BCC


15:50-16:00  Tea Break


Topic III (cont.): Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2007 over East Asia Area

Chair:                 Won-Tae Yun, CPD/KMA

16:00-16:20        Prediction of 2007 East Asia Summer Monsoon using CME/PNU CGCM

Hye-In Jeong, Pusan National University 

16:20-16:40        East Asian Monsoon at the Met Office Seasonal System, forecast for

2007 summer

 Alberto Arribas Herranz, UK Met Office

16:40-17:00      Latest IRI seasonal climate forecasts

                            Liquan Sun, IRIUSA

17:00-17:20        Seasonal Outlook of the 2007 Summer from METRI Climate Prediction


Young-Hwa Byun, KMA

17:20-17:40       Prediction of Typhoon Frequency over the Northwestern Pacific in 2007

Zhu Yanfeng, BCC/CMA 

17:40-18:00        Tropical Ocean-Atmospheric Conditions Monitoring and Outlook in 2007

Han Rongqin, BCC/CMA

18:00-18:20        Downscaling NCC CGCM Output for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction over Pakistan

              M. Afzaal, PMD, Pakistan

Dinner (18:20-20:00)


April 6 (Friday), 2007


Session 2: Climate Information Application08:30-12 :00

Chair:        Ogallo Laban

08:30-08:50   Advances in Climate Monitoring and Climate Impact Assessment in Malaysian Meteorological Department

Azhar Ishak, Commercial Service Division, MMD

08:50-09:10        Seasonal forecasting at the Met Office, scientific plans and communication issues

Alberto Arribas Herranz, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

09:10-09:30        Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction Services in the Philippines

Remedios C. Liwanag, PAGASA Weather Bureau

09:30-09:50       Climate change impact on agriculture

Song Yanling, BCC/CMA

09:50-10:10        TBD

Climate information user, China

10:10-10:30   Tea Break


Session 3: Training Courses (10:30-12:00)

Chair:      Yan Yuping

10:30-11:10    Present limitations to satellite mapping of the surface radiation


Manuel Nunez, University of Tasmania, Australia

11:10-11:50    Forecast verification

                  Chen Deliang, BCC/CMA

Lunch (11:50-13:00)

Discussion and Summary (13:00-14:30)

Chair:       Chen Deliang

A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2007 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IMD, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from Asia.

Closing Ceremony (14:30-14:50)

Chair:      Li Weijing

14:30-14:40               Speech by representative of FOCRAII participants

14:40-14:50        Address by Deputy Administrator of CMA

15:00-19:00  Technical Excursion (short bus tour to Lama Temple)

Dinner (19:00-21:00)

Poster Presentations

1. A Ten-Year Climatology over Northern Part of Korea from a RegCM


2. Current Climate Variability and Change in Kazakhstan: Climate Change

Yeleuova Karagoz, Kazakstan

3. Climate in Laos

Vanhdy Douangmala, DMH of Laos

4. Climate Products and Services of Thailand

Jiraporn Jutakorn, TMD

5. Dynamics of the atmosphere taking into account effects of causal mechanics

Zokhidjon Nazirov, Uzbekstan

6. Assessment of climate happening (temperature and rainfall) in 2006 year and 1997-2006

period in Viet Nam

Dao Thi Thuy, Vietnam