Provisional Program of FOCRAII 2009



Fifth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)

Provisional Program

6-8 April, 2009, Hangzhou, China


April 6 (Monday), 2009


LocationNade Hotel

Opening Ceremony (09:00-10:00)

Chair:            LI Weijing

09:00-09:10         Welcome address by head of CMA

09:10-09:20        Address by WMO representative

09:20-09:30         Address by Director-General of BCC

09:30-10:00         Group Photo and Tea Break

Invited Lectures (10:00-12:00)

Chair:           Arun Kumar

10:00-10:30         Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: An Overview of Current Status and Efforts

Arun Kumar, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

10:30-11:00         Unusual Late Season Cold Surges during Asian Winter Monsoon 2005: The Role of Atlantic Blocking and the Central Asian Anticyclone


11:00-11:30         A study of the teleconnection in the Asian Pacific monsoon region


11:30-12:00        ENSO Current status, expected global impacts and climate information systems users oriented

Rodney Martínez, CIFFEN, Ecuador

Lunch (12:00-13:30)

Invited Lectures (13:30-15:30)

Chair:      Richard Graham

13:30-14:00       Seasonal Climate Prediction: Bias Correction and Forecast Verification

Liqiang SUN, IRI, USA

14:00-14:30         Multi-model Ensemble Using WMO GPCs Model Products

Won-Tae Yun, KMA

14:30-15:00        Diagnosis of the atmospheric circulation in winter 2008/2009


15:00-15:30        Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities and Plans for Future Development in Australia

Brad Murphy, BOM, Australia


15:30-15:50    Tea Break

Session 1Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009  (15:50-17:50)

Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change

Chair:      Kumi HAYASHI

15:50-16:05         Water and Climate Change in Cambodia

BIN Chann Mony, DOM, Cambodia

16:05-16:20        Impact of Climate Change on Some Economy Sectors of Kazakhstan

Svetlana Dolgikh, Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan

16:20-16:35         Development of Climate Change Scenarios during 2001 to 2100 in DPR Korea

Kim Song Hyon, SHMA, DPRK

16:35-16:50     Climate Change Scenario in India

Thakur Prasad, IMD, India   

16:50-17:05        Overview of Recent Climate over Korea

NA Hyun-Jong, CPD/KMA

17:05-17:20        Climate events and impacts over China in 2008

Gao Rong, BCC/CMA

17:20-17:35        Recent Evolution and Outlook of ENSO Cycle

Sun Chenghu, BCC/CMA

17:35-17:50         Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Agriculture and Water Resources Sector in the Philippines

              Edna Lee Juanillo, PAGASA-DOST

17: 50-18:05       Current Status of Climate monitoring and Long - range Weather Forecast in Lao PDR


Reception by BCC (18:00-20:00)


April 7 (Tuesday), 2009

Invited Lectures (08:30-10:30)

Chair:           Won-Tae Yun

08:30-09:00         Developments in seasonal forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre and forecasts for the 2009 monsoon season

Richard Graham, Hadley Center, UK

09:00-09:30        Overview of the 2008-09 Asian-Australian monsoons and outlook of the 2009 Asian summer monsoon

Song YANG, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

09:30-10:00        Climate Service at APEC Climate Center: Current and Upcoming Products

Kyong-Hee AN, APCC, Korea

10:00-10:30         Weather and Climate Prediction with Icosahedral-Hexagonal Model

Jia Ho OH, Pukyong National University, Korea

10:30-10:50       Tea Break


Session 1 (cont.) Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009

Oral Presentations (10:50-12:10)

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling

Chair:            Liqiang Sun

10:50-11:05         East Asian Subtropics Monsoon Index and the Relations with the Mei-yu

Zhou Bing, BCC/CMA

11:05-11:20          Summer Season Hindcast Experiments using JMA/MRI-CGCM3

Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA, Japan

11:20-11:35         Analysis of Summer Rainfall in Korea and Status of a New Seasonal Forecast System Development


11:35-11:50         Decadal Variations of North Pacific Subsurface Temperature and Its Relation to Summer Precipitation in East China

SUN Zhaobo, NUIST, China

11:50-12:05        An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East China: the importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

Hu Yamin, Guangdong PMB/CMA


Lunch (12:05-13:30)


Oral Presentations (13:30-18:00)

Topic II (cont.): Climate Prediction System and Modeling

Chair:            SUN Zhaobo

13:30-13:45        Impact of Soil Moisture on the Seasonal Predictability over East Asia

Zhan Yanling, IAP/CAS, China

13:45-14:00         Recent Development on Multi model Super Ensemble

CHAN Chenghou, MGB, Macao, China

14:00-14:15         Contribution of the Indian Ocean SSTA to the Impact of El Nino on the atmospheric circulation over East Asia

Sun Xuguang, Nanjing University, China

14:15-14:30       Validation of satellite rainfall estimation (cpc_rfe_v2.0) over Nepal region in the central Himalaya

Rupak Man RAJBHANDARI, Nepal

14:30-14:45         Evaluation of FEWS Model Performance and Operational Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Flood Season 2008)

Hazrat Mir, PMD

14:45-15:00        The Arctic Oscillation and the autumn/winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau

Lu Junmei, CAMS/CMA


15:00-15:20  Tea Break


Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2009 over East Asia Area

Chair:            Zhang Peiqun

15:20-15:35         Outlook of East Asia Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in Flood Season of 2009 in China

Ai Wanxiu, BCC/CMA

15:35-15:50         Outlook of Summer Prediction over East Asia in 2009 by DCMPS_BCC

Yang Mingzhu, BCC/CMA

15:50-16:05         Seasonal Outlook of the 2009 Summer

LEE, Hyun-Soo, CPD/KMA

16:05-16:20         Seasonal Outlook for summer 2009 over Japan

Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA, Japan

16:20-16:35       Latest IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts

                            Liqiang Sun, IRI, USA

16:35-16:50         Currennt Seasonal Climate Outlooks from Australia

Brad Murphy, BOM, Australia

16:50-17:05        Climate Review of 2008 and Outlook for summer 2009 in Mongolia

Gerelchuluun Bayasqalan, Mongolia

17:05-17:20        Climate Projection over Indonesia Maritime Continent Using 20 km-mesh MRI AGCM

Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur, IMGA, Indonesia

17:20-17:35        A Dynamical Approach in Forecasting Annual Rainfall of Hong Kong

Edwin Ginn, HKO, China

17:35-17:50         Climate Modeling and Future Climate Projection

Babaeian IMAN, IMO, Iran


Dinner (18:00-20:00)


April 8 (Wednesday), 2009

Session 2: Program on Asia-Pacific Network of Climate Extreme Events Monitoring and Assessment (Contribute to WCC-3)

08:30-10 :30

Chair:      Feifei Jin


10:30-10:50   Tea Break


Session 3: Discussion and Summary (10:50-11:50)

Chair:      DING Yihui

A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2009 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, BOM, CIFFEN, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from Asia.

Closing Ceremony (11:50-12:10)

Chair:      XIAO Ziniu

11:50-12:00                Speech by representative of FOCRAII participants

12:00-12:10         Address by representative of CMA

Lunch (12:10-13:30)


13:30-19:00 Technical Excursion (including dinner)