Tentative Agenda of FOCRAII 2011



The Seventh Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)


6-8 April 2011, Beijing, China


April 6 (Wednesday), 2011


Location2nd Floor, CMA Conference Center

Opening Ceremony (09:00-09:30)

Chair:            TBD

09:00-09:10         Welcome address by Dr. ZHENG Guoguang, Administrator of CMA

09:10-09:20         Address by Representative of WMO

09:20-09:30         Address by Dr. SONG Lianchun, Director-General of BCC

09:30-10:00         Group Photo and Tea Break

Session 1User Interface Program —Opportunity, Challenge and Implementation(10:00-11:50)

Chair: CHEN Zhenlin

10:00-10:10         TBD

CHEN Zhenlin, CMA

10:10-10:20         TBD

Representative of World Food Program (WFP)

10:20-10:30         Sub-Group on Climate Applications and Services in RAII

Kiyoharu Takano, Coordinator, WMO RA II WGCAA-CAS

10:30-10:40         Role of climate information on agriculture

Ghulam Rasul, Coordinator, WMO RA II WGCAA-CAS

10:40-11:00        TBD

Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Civil Affairs

11:00-11:50          Discussion


Lunch (12:00-13:30)


Session 2: Invited Lectures (13:30-18:00)

Chair:           Francis Zwiers

13:30-14:00        New ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4


14:00-14:30        Modulation of the Tibetan Plateau on the air-sea interaction over the Bay of Bengal and the Asian summer monsoon onset

WU Guoxiong, IAP/CAS, China

14:30-15:00         Climate monitoring - the need to make more of the basic data available

Phil JONES, Hadley Centre, UK

15:00-15:30        Intraseasonal variation of the Siberian-Mongolian High and seasonal predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon TBD



15:30-15:50    Tea Break


Chair:           Timothy Nigel Stockdale

15:30-16:00        Air-sea interaction associated with the climatological aspects and interannual variability of the onset of the South Asian monsoon

Ngar-Cheung LAU, NOAA, USA

16:00-16:30        TBD

Feifei JIN, Hawaii University, USA    

16:30-17:00         TBD

Francis Zwiers, EC, Canada

17:00-17:30        Spring Persistent Rainfall over East Asia in atmospheric GCMs

Zhaoxin Laurent LI, CNRS, France

17:30-18:00      Interdecadal and Interannual Variations of the India-Burma Trough and Their Relationships with Climate Anomalies over Southern and Eastern Asia

Song Yang, CPC, USA



Reception by BCC (18:30-20:00)


April 7 (Thursday), 2011

Session 3Analysis of Impact Mechanism of Key External Forcing Physical Factors (09:00-11:55)

Chair:           CHEN Lijuan

Invited Lectures

09:00-09:30       Experimental real-time MJO forecasting

H. HENDON, Australia

09:30-10:00       TBD

XU XiangdeCAMS/CMA, China

10:00-10:30       Some of the high-res efforts at GFDL



10:30-10:40    Tea Break


Chair:           Harry HENDON

Oral Presentation

10:40-10:55        Impact of Snow Cover on Tibetan Plateau on Monsoon Onset

MA Lijuan, BCC/CMA, China

10:55-11:10       Impact of Sea Temperature and Outlook

SUN Chenghu, BCC/CMA, China

11:10-11:25         TBD


11:25-11:40          (About the impact of snow cover on Asia on Winter Monsoon)

Baek-Min Kim, Korea Polar Research Institute, Korea

11:40-11:55        Impact of Polar Ice and Outlook

WU Bingyi, CAMS/CMA, China


Lunch (12:00-13:30)


Session 4Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change (13:30-15: 10)

Chair:      ZHANG Peiqun


13:30-13:40        Climate Events and Impacts over China in 2010

BCC/CMA, China

13:40-13:50        Overview of Last Winter Climate over Korea

Youngho Lee, KMA

13:50-14:00        About the heavy snow in east Korea

Eunmi Kim, KMA

14:00-14:10     TBD


14:10-14:20        (About Changma(major rainy season in korea) climate analysis)

Jun-Hyeok SON, Pusan Univ., Korea

14:20-14:30         TBD


14:30-14:40        TBD


14:40-14:50         TBD

Bidya Ratna Shakya, Nepal

14:50-15:00        TBD


15:00-15:10        About the cold surge in Korea

Gilbong Kang, KMA



15:10-15:30  Tea Break


Session 5Seasonal Climate Prediction of the Summer 2011 over East Asia Area (15:30-18: 00)

Chair:       Baek-Min Kim

Invited Lecture

15:30-16:00       MJO Prediction and Predictability

In-Sik KANG, SNU, Republic of Korea

16:00-16:30       Seasonal hindcast and MJO forecast

Bin Wang, Hawaii University, USA

Oral Presentation

16:30-16:40         Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011 over Japan


16:40-16:50       Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011 over China

                            LIANG Xiaoyun, BCC/CMA, China


16:50-17: 00       Tea Break


Chair:      Si Lin Hilda Lam Kwong

17: 00-17:10        Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011

PENG Jingbei, IAP/CAS, China

17: 10-17:20        Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011 by using MME

Soo-Jin Sohn, APEC Climate Center, Korea

17: 20-17:30        Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011

HKO, China

17: 30-17:40        Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011

Macao, China

17:40-17:50        Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011

Jiyoung Kim, KMA

17:50-18:00        Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011

Oyunjargal Lamjav, Mongolia

18:00-18:10       Seasonal Outlook for summer 2011 by using statistical Model

                Yeon-Hee Kim, Kongju Univ., Korea     


Dinner (18:10-20:00)


April 8 (Friday), 2011

Session 6: Operational Training (Asian-Australian Monsoon Prediction and Impact)09:00-12 :00

Chair:  M. Rajeevan     

09:00-09:30        New results on Long term observed variability of South Asian monsoon (includes results on decadal variability)

M. Rajeevan, India

09:30-10:00    The interdecadal variability of E. Asian monsoon, undertstanding past changes (will also show some results on interdecadal prediction)

T. Zhou

10:00-10:30       Monsoon seasonal forecasting at the Met Office and some overview of interdecadal variability of Monsoon-Enso teleconnections



10:30-10:40   Tea Break


Chair:  Song Yang         

10:40-11:00        Modeling at MRI for climate variability and climate change


11:00-11:20          TBD

WANG Caifang, RTC Nanjing, China

11:20-11:40          Progress of BCC Regional Extreme Events Monitoring System

REN Fumin, BCC/CMA, China

11:40-12:00         TBD

TCC, Japan



Lunch (12:00-13:30)


Session 7: Discussion and Summary (13:30-14:30)

Chair: TBD

A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2011 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, Hadley Center/UK, ECMWF, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from Asia.


Closing Ceremony (14:30-14:50)

Chair:    SONG Lianchun

14:30-14:40                Speech by representative of FOCRAII participants

14:40-14:50         Address by representative of CMA