Third Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)
（Provisional Program）
April 4 (Wednesday), 2007
Registration（08:00-09:00）
Location：Lobby of
Opening Ceremony (09:00-10:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Chair: Chen Deliang
09:00-09:10 Welcome address by Administrator of CMA
09:10-09:20 Address by WMO representative (Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, Chief, World Climate Applications & CLIPS Division, WMO)
09:20-09:30 Address by Deputy Director-General of BCC (Dr. Li Weijing)
09:30-10:00 Group Photo and Tea Break
Invited Lectures (10:00-12:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Chair: Li Weijing
10:00-10:40 Mainstreaming climate services within the decision-making framework: Asian context
R. Kolli, Chief, WCA & CLIPS Division, WMO
10:40-11:20 Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in
Ding Yihui, Academician of CAS, CMA
11:20-12:00 Developments in Seasonal-to-Decadal forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre
Christopher Gordon,
Lunch (12:00-13:30)
Session 1：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2007 (13:30-18:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Invited Lectures (13:30-15:30)
Chair: Song Yang
13:30-14:10 NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Simulations and Prediction of the Asian-Australian and Indo-Pacific Climate
Song Yang, NOAA's
14:10-14:50 Climate Monitoring and Prediction at the IRI
Liqiang SUN,
14:50-15:30 Scientific Developments in Seasonal Climate Prediction
Saji N. Hameed, APCC,
15:30-15:50 Tea Break
Oral Presentations (15:50-17:50) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change
Chair: Patricio López Carmona
15:50-16:10 Climate Change in
Pulak Guhathakurta, IMD
16:10-16:30 Climate Variability
Begum
16:30-16:50 Overview of Recent Climate over
Kyung Suk Cho, CPD/KMA
16:50-17:10 Recent Summer Climate Change in Northern Part of
Choe Pong Chol, SHMA
17:10-17:30 Variations in severe storm over
Xukai Zou, BCC/CMA
17:30-17:50 Projection of mean climate over
Jagadishwor Karmacharya, DHM,
17:50-18:00 Conceptual proposal for development of a regional project on “enabling people for adaptation to the climate change and natural disaster through the network of scientists-teachers-students”
Dhiraj Pradhananga, BCC visiting scholar, DHM, Nepal
Reception by BCC (18:00-20:00)
April 5 (Thursday), 2007
Invited Lectures (08:30-11:30) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Chair: R. Kolli
08:30-09:10 CIIFEN’s Climate Information Services in
Patricio López Carmona, Director of CIIFEN,
09:10-09:50 ICPAC Experience in Regional Climate Monitoring and Seasonal Prediction in the Greater Horn of
OGALLO LABAN, Director of ICPAC,
09:50-10:30 Regional difference of the long-term variability in tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific
Chang-Hoi Ho,
10:30-10:50 Tea Break
Session 1 (cont.) ：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2007 (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Invited Lecture (10:50-11:30)
Chair: Zhang Zuqiang
10:50-11:30 The JMA Ensemble One-month Prediction System
Shuhei MAEDA, CPD/JMA
Oral Presentations (11:30-12:50)
Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling
11:30-11:50 Adaptation of Global and Regional Spectra Models for Seasonal Forecasting in
Mok Hing Yim, HKO
11:50-12:10 KMA Long-Range Forecast Systems and Verification of rainfall/temperature predictions in 2006
Lee Youngho, CPD/KMA
12:10-12:30 Effects of Multi-Cumulus Convective Ensemble for East Asian Monsoon Rainfall
Doo Young Lee, APCC,
12:30-12:50 Seasonal simulation of temperature and precipitation over
Yevgeniya Petrova, Applied Meteorological Department, Kazkhstan
Lunch (12:50-13:50)
Oral Presentations (13:50-18:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)
Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2007 over
Chair: Zhang Peiqun, BCC/CMA
13:50-14:10 Seasonal Outlook of the 2007 Summer
Won-Tae Yun, CPD/KMA
14:10-14:30 Climate Prediction in Summer Season of
Kim Chol Min, SHMA
14:30-14:50 The JMA Seasonal Forecast for 2007 Summer
Norihisa FUJIKAWA, JMA
14:50-15:10 The Outlook of East Asia Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in Flood Season of
Gao Hui, BCC/CMA
15:10-15:30 Forecast for 2007 Rainy Season
Lao
15:30-15:50 Seasonal Outlook on 2007 East Asian Summer Monsoon by DCMPS/BCC
Liu Luliu, BCC
15:50-16:00 Tea Break
Topic III (cont.): Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2007 over
Chair: Won-Tae Yun, CPD/KMA
16:00-16:20 Prediction of 2007 East Asia Summer Monsoon using CME/PNU CGCM
Hye-In Jeong,
16:20-16:40 East Asian Monsoon at the Met Office Seasonal System, forecast for
2007 summer
Alberto
16:40-17:00 Latest IRI seasonal climate forecasts
Liquan Sun, IRI，USA
17:00-17:20 Seasonal Outlook of the 2007 Summer from METRI Climate Prediction
System
Young-Hwa Byun, KMA
17:20-17:40 Prediction of Typhoon Frequency over the Northwestern Pacific in 2007
Zhu Yanfeng, BCC/CMA
17:40-18:00 Tropical Ocean-Atmospheric Conditions Monitoring and Outlook in 2007
Han Rongqin, BCC/CMA
18:00-18:20 Downscaling NCC CGCM Output for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction over
M. Afzaal, PMD,
Dinner (18:20-20:00)
April 6 (Friday), 2007
Session 2: Climate Information Application（08:30-12 :00）
Chair: Ogallo Laban
08:30-08:50 Advances in Climate Monitoring and Climate Impact Assessment in Malaysian Meteorological Department
Azhar Ishak, Commercial Service Division, MMD
08:50-09:10 Seasonal forecasting at the Met Office, scientific plans and communication issues
Alberto Arribas Herranz, Met Office Hadley Centre,
09:10-09:30 Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction Services in the
Remedios C. Liwanag, PAGASA Weather Bureau
09:30-09:50 Climate change impact on agriculture
Song Yanling, BCC/CMA
09:50-10:10 TBD
Climate information user,
10:10-10:30 Tea Break
Session 3: Training Courses (10:30-12:00)
Chair: Yan Yuping
10:30-11:10 Present limitations to satellite mapping of the surface radiation
balance
Manuel Nunez,
11:10-11:50 Forecast verification
Chen Deliang, BCC/CMA
Lunch (11:50-13:00)
Discussion and Summary (13:00-14:30)
Chair: Chen Deliang
A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2007 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IMD, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from
Closing Ceremony (14:30-14:50)
Chair: Li Weijing
14:30-14:40 Speech by representative of FOCRAII participants
14:40-14:50 Address by Deputy Administrator of CMA
15:00-19:00 Technical Excursion (short bus tour to
Dinner (19:00-21:00)
Poster Presentations
1. A Ten-Year Climatology over Northern Part of
Ri Ho, SHMA
2. Current Climate Variability and Change in
Yeleuova Karagoz, Kazakstan
3. Climate in
Vanhdy Douangmala, DMH of
4. Climate Products and Services of
Jiraporn Jutakorn, TMD
5. Dynamics of the atmosphere taking into account effects of causal mechanics
Zokhidjon Nazirov, Uzbekstan
6. Assessment of climate happening (temperature and rainfall) in 2006 year and 1997-2006
period in
Dao
