Provisional Program of FOCRAII 2009
Fifth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for
（Provisional Program）
6-8 April, 2009,
April 6 (Monday), 2009
Registration（08:00-09:00）
Location：Nade Hotel
Opening Ceremony (09:00-10:00)
Chair: LI Weijing
09:00-09:10 Welcome address by head of CMA
09:10-09:20 Address by WMO representative
09:20-09:30 Address by Director-General of BCC
09:30-10:00 Group Photo and Tea Break
Invited Lectures (10:00-12:00)
Chair: Arun Kumar
10:00-10:30 Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: An Overview of Current Status and Efforts
Arun Kumar, NOAA's
10:30-11:00 Unusual Late Season Cold Surges during Asian Winter Monsoon 2005: The Role of Atlantic Blocking and the Central Asian Anticyclone
Chih-Pei
11:00-11:
DING Yihui, BCC/CMA
11:30-12:00 ENSO Current status, expected global impacts and climate information systems users oriented
Rodney Martínez, CIFFEN, Ecuador
Lunch (12:00-13:30)
Invited Lectures (13:30-15:30)
Chair: Richard Graham
13:30-14:00 Seasonal Climate Prediction: Bias Correction and Forecast Verification
Liqiang SUN, IRI, USA
14:00-14:30 Multi-model Ensemble Using WMO GPCs Model Products
Won-Tae Yun, KMA
14:30-15:00 Diagnosis of the atmospheric circulation in winter 2008/2009
Kumi HAYASHI, TCC/JMA,
15:00-15:30 Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities and Plans for Future Development in
Brad Murphy, BOM,
15:30-15:50 Tea Break
Session 1：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009 (15:50-17:50)
Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change
Chair: Kumi HAYASHI
15:50-16:05 Water and Climate Change in
BIN Chann Mony, DOM,
16:05-16:20 Impact of Climate Change on Some Economy Sectors of
Svetlana Dolgikh,
16:20-16:35 Development of Climate Change Scenarios during 2001 to
Kim Song Hyon, SHMA, DPRK
16:35-16:50 Climate Change Scenario in
Thakur Prasad, IMD,
16:50-17:05 Overview of Recent Climate over
NA Hyun-Jong, CPD/KMA
17:05-17:20 Climate events and impacts over
Gao Rong, BCC/CMA
17:20-17:35 Recent Evolution and Outlook of ENSO Cycle
Sun Chenghu, BCC/CMA
17:35-17:50 Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Agriculture and Water Resources Sector in the
Edna Lee Juanillo, PAGASA-DOST
17: 50-18:05 Current Status of Climate monitoring and Long - range Weather Forecast in Lao PDR
Vanhdy DOUANGMALA, DMH,
Reception by BCC (18:00-20:00)
April 7 (Tuesday), 2009
Invited Lectures (08:30-10:30)
Chair: Won-Tae Yun
08:30-09:00 Developments in seasonal forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre and forecasts for the 2009 monsoon season
Richard Graham,
09:00-09:30 Overview of the 2008-09 Asian-Australian monsoons and outlook of the 2009 Asian summer monsoon
Song YANG, NOAA's
09:30-10:00 Climate Service at
Kyong-Hee AN, APCC,
10:00-10:30 Weather and Climate Prediction with Icosahedral-Hexagonal Model
Jia Ho OH,
10:30-10:50 Tea Break
Session 1 (cont.) ：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009
Oral Presentations (10:50-12:10)
Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling
Chair: Liqiang Sun
10:50-11:05 East Asian Subtropics Monsoon Index and the Relations with the Mei-yu
Zhou Bing, BCC/CMA
11:05-11:20 Summer Season Hindcast Experiments using JMA/MRI-CGCM3
Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA,
11:20-11:35 Analysis of Summer Rainfall in
KANG, Hyun-Suk, METRI/KMA
11:35-11:50 Decadal Variations of North Pacific Subsurface Temperature and Its Relation to Summer Precipitation in
SUN Zhaobo, NUIST,
11:50-12:05 An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over
Lunch (12:05-13:30)
Oral Presentations (13:30-18:00)
Topic II (cont.): Climate Prediction System and Modeling
Chair: SUN Zhaobo
13:30-13:45 Impact of Soil Moisture on the Seasonal Predictability over
Zhan Yanling, IAP/CAS,
13:45-14:00 Recent Development on Multi model Super Ensemble
CHAN Chenghou, MGB,
14:00-14:15 Contribution of the Indian Ocean SSTA to the Impact of El Nino on the atmospheric circulation over
Sun Xuguang,
14:15-14:30 Validation of satellite rainfall estimation (cpc_rfe_v2.0) over
Rupak Man RAJBHANDARI,
14:30-14:45 Evaluation of FEWS Model Performance and Operational Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Flood Season 2008)
Hazrat Mir, PMD
14:45-15:00 The Arctic Oscillation and the autumn/winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau
Lu Junmei, CAMS/CMA
15:00-15:20 Tea Break
Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2009 over
Chair: Zhang Peiqun
15:20-15:35 Outlook of East Asia Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in Flood Season of
Ai Wanxiu, BCC/CMA
15:35-15:50 Outlook of Summer Prediction over
Yang Mingzhu, BCC/CMA
15:50-16:05 Seasonal Outlook of the 2009 Summer
LEE, Hyun-Soo, CPD/KMA
16:05-16:20 Seasonal Outlook for summer 2009 over
Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA,
16:20-16:35 Latest IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Liqiang Sun,
16:35-16:50 Currennt Seasonal Climate Outlooks from
Brad Murphy, BOM,
16:50-17:05 Climate Review of 2008 and Outlook for summer
17:05-17:20 Climate Projection over Indonesia Maritime Continent Using
Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur, IMGA,
17:20-17:
Edwin Ginn, HKO,
17:35-17:50 Climate Modeling and Future Climate Projection
Babaeian IMAN, IMO,
Dinner (18:00-20:00)
April 8 (Wednesday), 2009
Session 2: Program on Asia-Pacific Network of Climate Extreme Events Monitoring and Assessment (Contribute to WCC-3)
（08:30-10 :30）
Chair: Feifei Jin
10:30-10:50 Tea Break
Session 3: Discussion and Summary (10:50-11:50)
Chair: DING Yihui
A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2009 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, BOM, CIFFEN, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from
Closing Ceremony (11:50-12:10)
Chair: XIAO Ziniu
11:50-12:00 Speech by representative of FOCRAII participants
12:00-12:10 Address by representative of CMA
Lunch (12:10-13:30)
13:30-19:00 Technical Excursion (including dinner)
