On 27 July 2008, Dr. Luo Jiajing from Frontier Research Center for Global Change of Japan delivered a report on "Model Bias Reduction and Seasonal Predictions in a Coupled OAGCM" in NCC.
Dr. Luo Jingjia introduced Earth Simulator Plan (ESP) and research progress of air-sea coupled model, including development of global air-sea model coupling technology and study on its physical mechanism, seasonal change of sea temperature and wind field and simulation of the relationship between the change and precipitation, as well as the experiment on sensitivity prediction. Dr. Luo considered that, the improvement of seasonal prediction firstly relies on the improvement of model's initial condition. Based on this viewpoint, 9-member and 18-member assembly prediction experiments were carried out. The results indicated that 1) ENSO phenomena is caused by large-scale sea-air interaction and has strong signal, therefore, the seasonal change of sea temperature may predict rainfall preferably; 2) although the polariton in India Ocean has good correlation with rainfall, but its forming mechanism is complicated and its signal is weak, therefore, it is difficult to forecast. If it is predictable, the rainfall prediction in China and Australia will be improved.
Dr. Luo's report had practical value for the climate system model development and predicting operation, thus drawing great attention from the participants.
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