On 29 August 2006, Dr. Zhang Qin from NOAA/NCEP/CPC visited the LCS and delivered a report on “NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) and ENSO Prediction”. Academician Ding Yihui presided the seminar. Dr. Dong Wenjie and other 30 experts and graduate students from NCC and CAMS attended the seminar.
Dr. Zhang mainly introduced the basic conditions and characteristics of CFS, such as global ocean-air coupling, one-step forecast, forecast modification by using historical recalculating information. She also introduced research progress on CFS short-term climate prediction, including 1) SST seasonal circulation simulated by CFS, system bias and forecast skills; 2) effect of seasonal forecast on 200hPa height field; 3) forecast skill of ENSO variability and its impact on atmospheric seasonal forecast; 4) monitoring and analysis on potential predictability of atmospheric seasonal forecast; 5) contribution of various heat fluxes components in mixed layer for development of ENSO circulation. Finally, Dr. Zhang gave the latest ENSO forecast from July this year to April 2007 by CFS.
Dr. Zhang’s lecture was very interesting and practical which attracted all the participants to join the discussion.
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