Beijing Climate Centre

A New El Nino Event Coming

2006-09-18

Positive SST anomalies have increased in most of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific since spring 2006. In August, positive SSTAs above 0.5℃ controlled most of the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and the central value near the date line was over 1.0℃ (Fig. 1). The NINO indices were all up to or over 0.5℃ during August, and NINO 3 and NINO 3.4 indices were both 0.5℃ and NINO Z index was 0.6℃. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) had been keeping negative values for four months since May 2006 and the SOI was -1.3 in August. In August, the oceanic and atmospheric circulation indicated that El Nino conditions were come into being in the tropical Pacific. Based on recent trends and a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts El Niño conditions are likely to continue and a new El Nino event is coming.

Figure 1 Monthly SST Anomalies in August (℃)

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