The annual progress workshop of the third task (“Phased transition, mutation and predictable study on Drought in Northern China process”) of the major State Basic Research Development Program ("Drought in Northern China and Human Adaptation") of the Ministry of Science and Technology of People’s Republic of China was held in BCC on December 12-13, 2006. Academician Chou Jifan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dr. Guo Weidong (Director of the project office), Prof. Mu Mu, Prof. Yan Zhongwei, Prof. Tan Ming, Prof. Zhai Panmao, Prof. Gu Zhaoyan (all are members of the major State Basic Research Development Program), relevant research staff, and graduate students, all together more than 30 people attended the meeting. Prof. Feng Guolin presided the meeting.

The purpose of the meeting is to exchange research progress in this year, discuss relevant scientific tasks, enhance cooperation and interaction among the members and promote the completion of the overall project objectives and expected progress. On the workshop, they discussed and exchanged mainly on the following aspects: (1) the collection and analysis of proxy data; (2) the detection method of transition and mutation; (3) the relationship between ecosystem evolution and climate mutation; (4) the relationship between sea-surface temperature mutations and Drought in Northern China; (5) the relationship between extreme events and climate mutation; (6) the drought index study.

They also discussed on the scientific tasks and countermeasures, such as: To analyze the facts of the extreme climate change in the process of climate change in Northern China; how to determine on which scale the Drought in Northern China changed from late 1970s to early 1980s; how to measure the contribution of human factors and natural factors influence on Drought in Northern China. The possible responses mainly concentrated in three aspects: (1) Collection of all kinds of proxy data and observation materials, detection of various information from different scales, analysis the results from a statistical perspective, and study the scale of possible driving factors on Drought in Northern China which happened from late 1970s to early 1980s; (2) Comprehensive and study on the information of different areas in the world (including ocean) and different climate elements. Study the emergence frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events and its relationship with Drought in Northern China for nearly 100 years; (3) Study from the construction of a simple model and the local ecological system response.

The meeting achieved the desired results, especially the outstanding significance in the research of "mutation detection and predictability". Whatever the cross, span disciplines and depth, the study had improved significantly on the basis of previous studies. The challenging work explored new ideas, arts and achieved inter-disciplinary exchanges and resources sharing.

On the meeting, Dr. Guo Weidong conveyed the project leader Academician Fu Congbin’s requests and proposals to the third group. Academician Chou Jifan made the summary report of the workshop, he fully affirmed the achievements this year and gave constructive suggestions to the future work.