Fifth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)

（Final Program）

6-8 April, 2009, Beijing, China

April 6 (Monday), 2009

Registration（08:00-08:30）

Location：1^st Floor, CMA Conference Center

Opening Ceremony (08:30-09:00)

Chair:            LI Weijing

08:30-08:40         Welcome address by Dr. Zheng Guoguang, Administrator of CMA

08:40-08:50         Address by Dr. Xiao Ziniu, Director-General of BCC

08:50-09:20         Group Photo and Tea Break

Invited Lectures (09:20-11:50)

Chair:           Arun Kumar

09:20-09:50         Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: An Overview of Current Status and Efforts

Arun Kumar, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

09:50-10:20         Unusual Late Season Cold Surges during Asian Winter Monsoon 2005: The Role of Atlantic Blocking and the Central Asian Anticyclone

Chih-Pei CHANG, USA

10:20-10:50        A study of the teleconnection in the Asian Pacific monsoon region

DING Yihui, BCC/CMA

10:50-11:00        Tea Break

11:00-11:30          Developments in long-range forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre

Richard Graham, Hadley Center, UK

11:30-12:00        Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities and Plans for Future Development in Australia

Brad Murphy, BOM, Australia

Lunch (12:00-13:30)

Invited Lectures (13:30-15:30)

Chair:      Richard Graham

13:30-14:00       Seasonal Climate Prediction: Bias Correction and Forecast Verification

Liqiang SUN, IRI, USA

14:00-14:30         Multi-model Ensemble Using WMO GPCs Model Products

Won-Tae Yun, KMA

14:30-15:00        Diagnosis of the atmospheric circulation in winter 2008/2009

Kumi HAYASHI, TCC/JMA, Japan

15:00-15:30        Climate Service at APEC Climate Center: Current and Upcoming Products

Kyong-Hee AN, APCC, Korea

15:30-15:50    Tea Break

Session 1：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009  (15:50-17:50)

Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change

Chair:      Kumi HAYASHI

15:50-16:05        The Building Plan for Monitoring and Assessment System of Extreme Weather-climate Events in Asia

Ren Fumin, BCC/CMA

16:05-16:20        Impact of Climate Change on Some Economy Sectors of Kazakhstan

Svetlana Dolgikh, Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan

16:20-16:35         Development of Climate Change Scenarios during 2001 to 2100 in DPR Korea

Kim Song Hyon, SHMA, DPRK

16:35-16:50     Climate Change Scenario in India

Thakur Prasad, IMD, India   

16:50-17:05        Overview of Recent Climate over Korea

NA Hyun-Jong, CPD/KMA

17:05-17:20        Climate events and impacts over China in 2008

Gao Rong, BCC/CMA

17:35-17:50         Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Agriculture and Water Resources Sector in the Philippines

              Edna Lee Juanillo, PAGASA-DOST

17:50-18:05         Current Status of Climate monitoring and Long - range Weather Forecast in Lao PDR

Vanhdy DOUANGMALA, DMH, Laos

Reception by BCC (18:05-20:00, Hubei Hotel)

April 7 (Tuesday), 2009

Session 1 (cont.) ：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling

Chair:           Won-Tae Yun

Invited Lectures (08:30-09:00)

08:30-09:00         Weather and Climate Prediction with Icosahedral-Hexagonal Model

Jia Ho OH, Pukyong National University, Korea

Oral Presentations (09:00-11:50)

09:00-09:15         East Asian Subtropics Monsoon Index and the Relations with the Mei-yu

Zhou Bing, BCC/CMA

09:15-09:30         Summer Season Hindcast Experiments using JMA/MRI-CGCM3

Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA, Japan

09:30-09:45        Analysis of Summer Rainfall in Korea and Status of a New Seasonal Forecast System Development

KANG, Hyun-Suk, METRI/KMA

09:45-10:00        Decadal Variations of North Pacific Subsurface Temperature and Its Relation to Summer Precipitation in East China

SUN Zhaobo, NUIST, China

10:00-10:20       Tea Break

Chair:            Liqiang Sun

10:20-10:35         A Dynamical Approach in Forecasting Annual Rainfall of Hong Kong

Edwin Ginn, HKO, China

10:35-10:50         Recent Development on Multi model Super Ensemble

CHAN Chenghou, MGB, Macao, China

10:50-11:05        An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East China: the importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

Hu Yamin, Guangdong PMB/CMA

11:05-11:20         The Arctic Oscillation and the autumn/winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau

Lu Junmei, CAMS/CMA

11:20-11:35         Impact of Soil Moisture on the Seasonal Predictability over East Asia

Zhan Yanling, IAP/CAS, China

11:35-11:50        Validation of satellite rainfall estimation (cpc_rfe_v2.0) over Nepal region in the central Himalaya

Rupak Man RAJBHANDARI, Nepal

11:50-12:05         Evaluation of FEWS Model Performance and Operational Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Flood Season 2008)

Hazrat Mir, PMD

Lunch (12:05-13:30)

Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2009 over East Asia Area

Chair:            Zhang Peiqun

Invited Lectures (13:30-14:00)

13:30-14:00        Overview of the 2008-09 Asian-Australian monsoons and outlook of the 2009 Asian summer monsoon

Song YANG, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

Oral Presentations (14:00-18:00)

14:00-14:15        Recent Evolution and Outlook of ENSO Cycle

Sun Chenghu, BCC/CMA

14:15-14:30         Outlook of East Asia Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in Flood Season of 2009 in China

Ai Wanxiu, BCC/CMA

14:30-14:45         Seasonal Outlook of the 2009 Summer

LEE, Hyun-Soo, CPD/KMA

14:45-15:00         Seasonal Outlook for summer 2009 over Japan

Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA, Japan

15:00-15:15       Latest IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts

                            Liqiang Sun, IRI, USA

15:15-15:30       Seasonal Outlook of the 2009 Summer in China

                            Sun Zhaobo, NUIST, China

15:30-15:50  Tea Break

15:50-16:05         Currennt Seasonal Climate Outlooks from Australia

Brad Murphy, BOM, Australia

16:05-16:20         Forecasts for the 2009 monsoon season

Richard Graham, Hadley Center, UK

16:20-16:35         Outlook of Summer Prediction over East Asia in 2009 by DCMPS_BCC

Yang Mingzhu, BCC/CMA

16:35-16:50        Climate Projection over Indonesia Maritime Continent Using 20 km-mesh MRI AGCM

Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur, IMGA, Indonesia

16:50-17:05        Climate Review of 2008 and Outlook for summer 2009 in Mongolia

Gerelchuluun Bayasqalan, Mongolia

17:05-18:00        Visit to Huafeng Group and NMIC

Dinner (18:00-20:00)

April 8 (Wednesday), 2009

Session 2: Program on Asia-Pacific Network of Climate Extreme Events Monitoring and Assessment (Contribute to WCC-3)

（08:30-10 :30）

Chair:      Feifei Jin

10:30-10:50   Tea Break

Session 3: Discussion and Summary (10:50-11:50)

Chair:      DING Yihui

A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2009 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, BOM, CIIFEN, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from Asia.

Closing (11:50-12:10)

Chair:      XIAO Ziniu

11:50-12:00                Speech by representative of FOCRAII participants

12:00-12:10         Address by representative of CMA

Lunch (12:10-13:30)

13:30-19:00 Technical Excursion to the Beijing Olympic Facilities (including dinner)